Common Improbable Events

Ever witness an improbable event ? You think how lucky you are. Then you think how many improbable events are there out there waiting to happen. Surely there are allot more possible improbable events than there are possible common events. Clowns throwing boomerangs in the middle of a herd of cows is one improbable event. But change it a little and you have another one. So the chances of coming across at least a few improbable events is quite high.

Best Movies II

Great Documentaries

Bowling for Columbine, 2002
Sketches of Frank Gehry, 2005

Good Movies

Breach, 2007
Children of Men
Pan's Labyrinth, 2006 (watch second time with director's commentary )
Freedom Writers, 2007
Penn & Teller's Magic and Mystery Tour, 2003

Good Documentaries

Metallica: Some Kind of Monster
American Movie
The Corporation, 2004 ( lots of extras on dvd )
Iraq for Sale: The War Profiteers, 2006
The God Who Wasn't There, 2005
Power and Terror: Noam Chomsky in Our Times, 2002
Noam Chomsky: Rebel Without a Pause, 2003

My previous list of movies ... Best Movies I.

Radio Lab

There are lots of science and good stories at the podcasts of RadioLab.

Freud, Science, the Mind, and Psychotherapy

Found a wonderful discussion on Charlie Rose about how science is revealing the mind. Its also a delightful conversation among a very articulate and authentic group.

Osiris, Dionysus, and Jesus Similarities

Spotted a link on Wikipedia that discusses the similarities between Osiris, Dionysus, and Jesus. Regardless of how you interpret them knowing the similarities brings up allot of interesting questions.

Other Links:
Parallels between the stories of Jesus and Osiris-Dionysus
The Jesus Mysteries
The_Jesus_Mysteries (Wikipedia)
Google search for: "Osiris Dionysus Jesus"

Jonestown

PBS American Experience broadcast a story on Jonestown, the cult founded by Jim Jones. Wikipedia also has a page on Jonestown. The most amazing thing about the story is that it happened. Among the elements of politics, religion, corruption of power, the bold actions of dreamers, and Orwellian archetypes, one idea stands out, the importance of learning from history, so that it is not repeated.

Black Swans

David Hume: "No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion."

Karl Popper: "You cannot know with any certainty that a proposition is true; you can only know that it is not true."

Malcom Gladwell on Black Swans and Blowing Up
Wikipedia page for Taleb's Book "Black Swans"
Wikipedia page for "Fooled By Randomness"

A few key ideas in all of this:

• The richest guy at the end of the day might be the luckiest and not the smartest.
• There are two paths to the same end, loosing a little bit every day and then winning big, and winning a little bit every day and then loosing big.
  
• People try too hard to explain randomness.
• Disruptive events are magnified in their intensity by not being expected.
• Disruptive events happen more often than one would expect because people are chaotic.
• People trust their own beliefs too much.
  
• Few people have the best strategy for taking advantage of the unknown.

A Million People

Consider the following:

• People's minds are machines capable of learning.
• The mechanism of learning is fallible (Ex. racism, sexism, fanatical religions, genocide, etc. ).
• Fallibility decreases if there is an increase in IQ, amount of knowledge, and critical thinking ability .
  
• An omnipotent intelligence could learn in an infallible way.
• The mechanism of learning is discoverable.
  
• One theory of learning is called "Society of Mind" where there are competing cooperative agents interacting in ones mind to form a single unified self.
  
• It should be possible to connect people through the Internet in a simple way that mimics the learning process of a single mind.
• The more people in this network the less its fallible.
  

Best Movies

I went through my Netflix rental history and picked out the best films.

Stand-out

• V for Vendetta
• Syriana
• Freedom Writers, 2007
• Orwell Rolls in His Grave, 2004

Excellent

• Serenity
• Firefly: Disc 1-4, 2002
• Run Lola Run, 1998
• Lady in the Water
• Cars
• Penn & Teller: Bullsh*t!:
• The Pursuit of Happyness, 2006
• The Chronicles of Riddick: Dark Fury
• The Village
• The Incredibles
• Big Fish
• Million Dollar Baby
• Jesus Camp
• Who Killed the Electric Car?, 2006
• Why We Fight
• Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
• Super Size Me

Ok

• Casino Royale
• In the Bedroom, 2001
• The Departed, 2006
• Memento
• The Boondock Saints
• Find Me Guilty
• Monster House
• The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
• Lucky Number Slevin
• Donnie Darko
• Hostel
• The Matador
• The Ice Harvest
• A History of Violence
• An Unfinished Life
• The Family Man
• Road to Perdition
• Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
• Crash
• Finding Neverland
• The Legend of Bagger Vance
• Batman Begins
• Sideways
• Brazil

Avoid

• Shortbus
• Borat
• The Office: Series 1

Confirmation Bias

Everyone thinks they are reasonable, but on a wide number of topics people have differing opinions. Why is this ? Confirmation Bias is one explanation. This wikipedia article is worth a read.

The first day after the apocalypse is over

Picture this. World War three plunges mankind into a hundred years of brutality, famine, mob rule, cruelty, a general hell on Earth. People are stretched to the limits of sanity and most don't make it. But things get better and in a small area things return to normal, pretty much like it is today. And into town one day rides a Mad Max character, scar, squeaky metal knee brace, leather jacket, shot gun, covered in dirt. What is the first thing he does ? All that time when things were down, no food, injured, alone. What did he dream about. He would say, "If this is ever all over I am going to ... ? ". Fall in love and start a family? Kick back with some good friends, eat well, and tell stories around a campfire ? Find a place in the country where things are quiet ? I bet he didn't say " I'm going to find a pointless job and watch bad television every night". Is great hardship the only force that can motivate people to seek great happiness ?

Who killed the electric car

This is an great documentary on electric cars. Some interesting facts:

• The GM EV1 was a leased vehicle and when GM stopped making the cars they refused to sell any of the cars to their owners. All the cars were scrapped.
• Major oil companies are proponents of hydrogen cars even though they will not be on the market for a decade. Electric cars work now and continue to improve as batteries improve.
• Chevron Oil owns the patents on Nickel Metal Hydride batteries.

While this doesn't point to a smoking gun, it sure makes you think about fair markets, big business, and the development of disruptive technology.